Illegal Orders
Scorpions
Here’s a Negotiating Tip: Don’t Take the Hostage Unless You’re Prepared to Shoot the Hostage
An interesting discussion. Note that around minute 15 Scaramucci gives what he characterizes as Wall Street’s prognostication on the Iran War.
Meanwhile this morning, the Wall Street Journal sucks its thumb at some length on the topic of The Back-Channel Diplomacy Behind Trump’s Iran U-Turn.
My takeaway: Over the weekend, yes, indeed, a lot of Muslim countries were talking to other Muslim countries, and some of them were talking to some people in Iran. But that’s about it.
This morning, Orange Mussolini claims that his talks with Iran are going just great, and the mullahs are about to throw in the towel.
To this the mullahs are still saying, in words or substance, “Bullshit!”
Curioser and Curioser
It is now about 3 PM Eastern Daylight Time. All the sources I read are still having the Iranians denying up and down that there are any talks going on. An exception is Axios, which has a rather detailed account of talks among the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and those two geniuses Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
But, notably, the very same Speaker has called bullshit on the reports of negotiation. His post on X says, and I quote, “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenewes isused to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
Could it be that Witkoff and Kushner, hoping to put off the Apocalypse, previously scheduled for 7:44 PM this evening, have told Trump a pack of lies?
Just asking.
I AM PLEASE TO REPORT …
I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT BILL KRISTOL LEARNED FROM HIS ERRORS ON THE IRAQ WAR
Writing today in The Bulwark, Kristol observes, among other things,
One assumes that the United States military would have refused to obey orders to commit a war crime like attempting the “total decimation” of a country.
But even if the military had gone ahead with some version of striking Iran’s civilian power plants, Iran would surely have responded by attacking similar targets in the Gulf, which they’ve shown they retain the capacity to do. The war would have widened and its economic effects would have worsened. And then we would have been faced with the possible introduction of ground troops to secure the Strait—which would have invited an extended conflict and an even more severe economic crisis.
I AM ALSO PLEASE TO REPORT THAT FINALLY, AT LONG LAST, WE HAVE LEARNED TRUMP’S ACTUAL WAR AIM
Kristol continues,
But notice beneath Trump’s bluster what he was demanding: Simply reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s central war aim is now just to fix the situation that his “excursion” caused.
How Can You Tell When Trump is Lying?
Operation Epic Stupidity
As I write, it’s about 11 AM Eastern Daylight Time in the United States. Two days ago, Orange Mussolini told everyone he was going to start bombing Iranian power stations at 7:44 PM today, unless Iran capitulated on the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, out of the blue, he changed his tune, claimed to have “very good talks”—with an unnamed person or persons in Iran—and “extended” his “deadline” by five days.
Iranian officials denied that any talks are going on and reasserted their maximalist demands for an end to hostilities, including monetary reparations.
Logically, there are three alternative explanations:
- The official Iranian sources are lying through their teeth, and Trump is telling the truth.
- A la Venezuela, Trump is actually talking to someone in Iran, just not to those who are officially in charge.
- Trump pulled the claims of “peace talks” out of his ass.
I think you know my guess as to which of these three possible alternatives is accurate.
More Fools They
The markets, keenly anticipating a Trump TACO on Iran, reacted to Trump’s announcement of Operation Epic Bullshit by leaping higher. Right now, the Dow is up around 1100 points.
More fools they.
It’s a Good Thing Trump Didn’t Become a Lawyer
Down here in Georgia yesterday, our Supreme Court listened to oral argument on a murder case. At the end of the argument, the chief justice had a few questions for the prosecution, including
- Why did she cite five cases that do not exist?
- Why did she cite another five cases that don’t actually stand for the propositions for which they were cited? and
- Why did she quote three passages legal opinions that di not actually exist?
The prosecutor promised to look into the matter and report back.
I look forward to Trump’s report on the “very good” “ongoing negotiations” that are supposed to be taking place this week.
President Ozymandias
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
Percy Bysshe Shelley
The Time Has Come, The Walrus Said, to Talk of Many Things, of Oil and War and Hormuz Straits—and the Chaos That Trump Brings
As I write early this Sunday morning, the talking heads are talking and the poohbahs are pontificating about the Middle East. Last night, I caught Elliot Abrams on the TeeVee. Wikipedia calls him “one of the Bush administration’s intellectual architects of the Iraq War.” So it’s good to know that Abrams thinks that Iran will soon capitulate.
What a relief!
Iran Does Not Share Elliot Abrams’ Perspective
Instead, as the Wall Street Journal solemnly informs us, Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War: Tehran sees an opportunity to control the Mideast’s energy as it bets on outlasting Trump’s will—a risky gamble.
Liar, Liar
Yesterday, the New York Times Editorial Board expatiated on Trump’s lies about the Iran War. I am sure that the members of the Editorial Board are prime examples of the great and the good, and I am equally confident that their knowledge of international affairs exceeds my own. But I do not think “liar” is the best term for Orange Mussolini.
A rational liar knows the truth but intends to deceive others. A rational liar knows that successful deception requires a certain finesse. You do not make claims that are easily shown to be false. That causes you to lose credibility, which in turn greatly impedes your plan of deception. Likewise, and for the same reason, you do not make claims that are internally inconsistent, nor do you make assertions and predictions that are highly implausible.
Trump is not lying to us.
Trump is, instead, trying to deceive himself.
Operation Blind Fury
Finally, count The Economist as much closer to the mullahs’ prognostication than to that of Elliot Abrams. The magazine writes War in Iran is making Donald Trump weaker—and angrier: By diminishing the president’s political superpowers, his reckless campaign may make him more dangerous.
Which Comes First—the Assassination or the Nuclear Bombs?
Trump has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against his foes. (Don’t think so? Ask your favorite AI source about his nuclear musings, and then read the sources it serves up.)
These threats are no secret to the mullahs. For that reason and others, in this world of great uncertainty, we may be confident that Iranian-inspired assassination teams are gearing up.
The big question, in my view, is whether the assassins get Trump before he orders the Air Force to drop some nukes.
The Strait of Trump
Facing MAGA 